Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Syria - Economic Observations January 2016

Syria – Economic Observations January 2016

  • Population: At the beginning of the civil war it was roughly 21 million.  Now the population is 17.5 million. Roughly 11 million people are displaced or refugees both domestically or internationally. Life expectancy in Syria is 55.7 years in 2015 down from 75.9 years in 2010.
  • Gross Domestic Product: The economy in Syria has contracted 50% since 2011. Syrian businesses have displaced to Turkey and Lebanon with 25% of companies with foreign shareholders started in Turkey in 2014 were Syrian.  GDP is estimated to decline 16% in 2016. Unemployment is about 57%
  • Government:  The fiscal deficit is 20% of GDP. The Syrian pound trades around 312 to the USD down about 80% since the beginning of the conflict. Through 2014 the cost of the war was 383% of the 2010 GDP.
  • Energy: Effective electrical generation is down 70% since the conflict began.  Government controlled oil production has fallen from 387K BPD to about 10K BPD.  ISIS has somewhere around 60K BPD and Kurds a similar amount though both are likely down hard in recent months.
  • Food: Fragmentation of the country has increased transportation costs so that it is more economical to import wheat from the Black Sea than to buy it and transport it from Hasakah to Damascus.

No comments: